Annual Opium Poppy Survey
1999/2000

Lao National Commission on Drug Control and Supervision
Vientiane, October 2000

Provincial Poppy Cultivation

The estimated area cultivated with opium poppy was based on the field measurements made by the surveyors.

The following steps were used to estimate the area cultivated per province:

1) The village survey data were grouped at the provincial level;

2) The provincial household average plot size was calculated;

3) The provincial average number of households cultivating opium was calculated;

4) The provincial household average plot size (2) was multiplied by the provincial average number of households cultivating opium (3) to obtain the average village poppy area per province;

5) The average village poppy area per province (4) was multiplied by the number of villages cultivating opium poppy in the province obtained in the baseline.

At the country level, the survey estimates that there were 19,052 hectares of poppy under cultivation in the 1999-2000 season. This represents a reduction of 7,700 ha compared with the 1997-1998 season (26,800 ha). It is however comparable to the results of the previous surveys of 1992 (19,190 ha) and 1996 (21,600 ha).

The sharp decrease compared to the 1998 estimates is due to two factors:

1) a reduction in the number of villages reported growing opium by the district authorities (from 2,056 villages in 1998 to 1,940 villages in 2000)

2) a reduction in the average household field size, from 0.36 ha/household to 0.31 ha/household.

The estimates per province are presented here below:

The survey confirmed that opium poppy cultivation mainly took place in the 6 provinces targeted by the Opium Elimination Programme. The cultivation in these 6 provinces accounted for 93 % of the total area under cultivation.

The following table shows the estimated area of poppy cultivation for each province for the present and past surveys:

Compared to the 1998 estimates, the most significant decreases were noticed in the provinces of Luang Namtha (- 2,079 ha or -57%) and in Phongsaly (-1,906 ha or 32%).

Some increases of low amplitude were observed in the provinces of Houaphan (+471 ha or +13%) and in Luang Prabang (+250 ha or +8%).

Provincial Area Estimates over the Years (in ha)

District Poppy Cultivation

The estimated area broken down by district is presented in Annex 8 and the map is in Annex 9.

Out of the 82 districts in the northern provinces, opium poppy cultivation was reported in 67 districts. Poppy cultivation is highly concentrated within a few districts. The top ten districts account for 43% of the total national area, while 80% of the cultivation takes place in the top 27 districts.

District Poppy Cultivation by District

Compared to the 1998 estimates, a decrease in opium cultivation was observed in 56 districts. The highest decrease took place in Nonghed, where a UNDCP alternative development project is being implemented. The top 5 decreases in absolute number are presented below:

On the other hand, increases are noted in only 11 districts. The 5 highest increases in absolute number are reported below:

Since the last survey, 2 districts were reported completely free of opium cultivation: Thoulakhom district in Vientiane Province and Bolikhan district in Bolikhamsay province.

For the first time, results were obtained from Phoun district in Xaysombun Special Region (63 ha) and in the Special Region of Bokeo Province (19 ha).

The district of Parklai in Xayabouri province is the only district where opium cultivation was recorded for the first time (13 ha).

In districts where alternative development projects are being implemented, a significant decrease is noticeable:

Location of Poppy Cultivation

The geographical co-ordinates of 5,479 villages (out of 6,404 villages) were provided by UXO-Lao. With the inclusion of these co-ordinates in the database, it is now possible to map at the village level the opium cultivation areas (see Annex 10).

This map, presented in Annex 10, confirms the concentration of opium cultivation areas in the northern part of the country, particularly in Phongsaly, in the western part of Luang Namtha, in the northern and southern parts of Oudomxay, in the eastern part of Houphan and the eastern part of Xieng Khouang.

Yield

The yield estimate is based on a methodology developed by the US government and relies on the correlation between the capsule volume and the yield. This method provides an estimate of the potential yield with 15% moisture content. This potential yield may differ from the actual harvest, and does not include possible post-harvest losses.

The potential opium yield estimate depends on the capsule volumes and capsule density per square meter measured by the surveyors. These two measurements gave an average volume of opium capsules per square meter that rose from 93.58 cm³/m² in 1998 to 221.51 cm³/m² in 2000. Based on these values, the potential yield at the country level rose from 4.6 kg/ha in 1998 to 8.7 kg/ha in 2000.

To put the potential opium yield for Laos in a global context, the estimates for various countries is presented here below:

The 1998 exceptional low yield, recorded by both the Lao-UNDCP survey and by the US survey team, was attributed to the lasting drought that affected the region:

Contrary to most licit crops, opium yield is prone to wide annual variations because most opium fields, located in remote and hilly areas, do not benefit from good management practices and daily care. In addition, the lack of irrigation and the absence of improved opium varieties contribute to put the annual opium yield more at the mercy of climatic variations than food crops.

The 2000 yield estimate returned to yield range observed in 1992 and 1996, with important provincial variations.

 For the first time in 2000 enough field observations were gathered to provide district yield estimates. The highest yield was observed in Pak Ou district (Luang Prabang) at 14.14 kg/ha, whereas Viengthong district in Bolikamsay showed the lowest yield at 2.63 kg/ha. In general the yields tended to increase from south to north.

The district estimates are in Annex 8 and the 5 highest district yields are presented here below:

Production

 The production is the multiplication of the area under opium cultivation by the potential yield.

The following table shows the estimated opium production for each province for the present and past surveys:

Comparison of the 1992, 1996, 1998 and 2000 results

Opium Prices

The farm gates prices for opium varies by location and time. Typically, the prices are lower just after the harvest but gradually increase as the opium gets drier and the stock available get smaller. The farmers don't sell their opium all at once after the harvest, nor is all of it sold to traders. Most farmers keep part of the harvest for their own consumption or for sale to other people either in the same village or to nearby villages for local consumption.

During the 2000 survey, the village headman and the farmers provided information on the farm gate prices at four dates: price in March 99 corresponds to the end of the 1999 harvesting season, price in November 99 corresponds to sowing time for the 2000 season, price in February 2000 corresponds to the time of the survey, while the last one is the expected price for the 2000 harvest.

The average prices for the 2000 opium season showed large variation between provinces. The lowest average price was observed in Phongsaly (309,000 KIP/kg) while it was ten times more in Bolikhamsay (3,611,000 KIP/kg).

Two groups of provinces could however been distinguished5/: Phongsaly, Udomxay and Luang Prabang with relatively low prices, while Bokeo, Huapanh, Xieng Khouang and Bolikhamsay with relatively higher prices.

At the country level, there was little change between the average prices for the 1999 harvest (639,000 KIP/kg) and the average expected price for the 2000 harvest (695,000 KIP/kg).

In dollar-equivalent, the average opium farmgate price for the 2000 season was estimated at 92 USD/kg (at the April 00 exchange rate of 7,520 KIP for one dollar). The price in dollar for the 1999 harvest appeared much higher (145 USD/kg) because of the depreciation of the KIP to the dollar between March 99 and November 99.

Addiction

Data on opium addiction, with a breakdown by gender and age, were collected during the interview of the village headman. The addicts themselves were not interviewed during the 2000 survey and no data on their level of consumption were collected.

Data on addiction were collected in opium growing and in non-opium growing villages. The addiction rate in the opium growing villages was about 3.24%6/ of the entire population in these villages, whereas in non-opium growing villages, it was at about 2.55%6/.

For the 11 northern provinces, the number of addicts was estimated at 62,895 persons. This made 2.71% or the total population, or 4.84% of the population over 15 years old.

The national opium addiction rate for the population over 15 years old was estimated at 2.26%.

Addiction by Province

At the provincial level, the province of Luang Prabang ranked first in number of addicts but the highest addiction rate was observed in Phongsaly.

 Addiction by District

Important variations were noted between the district addiction rates. The 5 districts showing the highest addiction rate against the total population are presented here below:

Addiction by gender

Out of the 3,654 addicts counted during the survey, 2,874 were men (or 78%) and 780 were women (or 22%). The 1998 survey indicated comparable ratio with 79% for men and 21% for women. A breakdown of the survey data by gender and age is presented on the next page.

Addiction by age

The mean age calculated for men opium addicts was 49.2 years old (median 48 years old) and for women the mean age was 52.6 years old (median 50 years old). The 1998 survey findings indicated a mean age of 52 years old for men addicts and 56 years old for women addicts.

The frequency distribution by age classes, showed that the highest number of addicts was to be found among people between 40 and 50 years old, and this for both men and women.

Field Damage

Farmers are asked whether there had been any damage to their crop this season. At the country level, about 20% of the respondents claimed their crop had been damaged. The provincial rates vary widely, with the highest rate in Bolikhamsay (90%), whereas in Xaybouri province, no respondent reported any damage.

No farmer reported using fertilizer on their opium poppy fields.

3/ In 1998, the national yield estimate of 4.6 kg/ha was used for all the provinces because of the limited number of observations available.

4/ The national yield was applied for Vientiane province because no field data were collected.

5/ Not enough data were collected for the provinces of Luang Namtha, Xayabouri and Xaisombun.

6/ These rates are for the entire population, from 0 to 105 years old.