- How much organized crime is there?
- Alternative ways to measure organized crime
- Measuring product markets and flows
- Risk assessment
- Key concepts of risk assessment
- Risk assessment of organized criminal groups
- Risk assessment of product markets
- Risk assessment in practice
Published in April 2018
Regional Perspectives: Pacific Islands Region - added in November 2019
Regional Perspective: Eastern and Southern Africa - added in April 2020
This module is a resource for lecturers
Key concepts of risk assessment
Risk and threat must be distinguished because they are different concepts. Risk is the product of the threat or likelihood of an event (i.e. its probability of occurring) and the severity of its consequences (i.e. the harm produced).
Figure 5.3 Threat, harm, and risk
When both the threat (probability) and its severity (harm) are known, a risk assessment can be carried out. This process is illustrated in Figure 5.3. Risk assessment, therefore, includes measures of both threat and harm. The specifics of a given location and local context are crucial for accurate risk assessment.