Remarks of the Executive Director
Informal Meeting with Member States
9 October 2001
Good morning,
In keeping with the informal nature of these meetings, I will make a few rather general introductory remarks. During the discussions that follow, I will be pleased to address any questions you might have.
Afghanistan is at the forefront in all our thoughts. In our last meeting, we addressed illicit cultivation in Afghanistan and put forward some ideas on a possible course of action.
You also received the report of a donor mission to Afghanistan which took place in April and May this year. The mission had confirmed the earlier finding of the UNDCP Pre-assessment survey that the ban on opium poppy had been implemented effectively.
The mission had also made a number of recommendations, and the urgency of the situation required us to give particular attention to the recommendations for short-term assistance. Some ideas were put forward on how this assistance could be delivered to those most directly affected.
A model project for Nangarhar Province was launched by UNDCP in August with the support of one donor. It involved agricultural inputs and food-for-work activities. Meanwhile, other donors informed us of their interest to fund projects in former poppy growing areas. Other countries undertook similar assistance programmes with other international agencies and NGOs.
In addition, an inter-agency project package for assistance to former opium poppy cultivating areas was prepared at the request of the Afghanistan Support Group and submitted by the UN Coordinator for Afghanistan to the Chairman of the Support Group in July. A conference was planned jointly by UNDCP and OCHA for early October to seek the support of the donor community for the package.
The tragic events of September the Eleventh changed the situation. UNDCP decided to put all its activities in Afghanistan on hold for the time being. This included the closure of the recently launched project in Nangarhar. Similarly, the Conference planned for early October was postponed. As developments unfold, a review of our policy for Afghanistan will be needed in close consultation with all stakeholders.
We have completed the annual poppy survey in Afghanistan, the results of which are available to you. In 2001, opium production in Afghanistan, as a result of the ban imposed by the Taliban and under pressure from the international community and especially UNDCP, fell by over ninety-four per cent, from three thousand three hundred tonnes (or seventy per cent of global production) to one hundred eighty-five tonnes (about ten per cent of global production). This brings the country back to production levels recorded during the early 1980s.
This reduction has not been offset by increases in other areas or countries. According to preliminary estimates, global production of opium will fall from four thousand seven hundred tonnes in 2000 to some one thousand seven hundred tonnes in 2001, a decline of more than sixty percent.
Despite the existence of stocks of opiates, such a reduction will have repercussions on the global opium and heroin market. On the demand side, for the consumer markets supplied with Afghan opiates, notably West Asia and Europe, the abrupt decline of opium production in Afghanistan could theoretically create a severe opium and heroin shortage. We can also expect an increase in diversion attempts from licit trade, both at the wholesale and retail levels. Some addicts could also switch to other illegal substances. And, where such alternatives are not available, demand for treatment could increase.
On the supply side, an opiate shortage would result in a loss of income that would not be entirely offset by the increase in price or decrease in purity. Traffickers and dealers might then seek alternative sources of opiates. We have identified three areas with high risk for displacement. First is Central Asia, especially Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. Second is the border areas of Pakistan that formerly grew poppy but where the Government recently eliminated cultivation with international assistance. Third would be Myanmar, which is now the largest producer of opium since the decrease in Afghanistan. There might also be more limited attempts to import heroin from Colombia into Europe. Prices of opium and heroin could be expected to increase in the countries concerned.
We would also expect a decline in opiate seizures, notably along the trafficking routes from Afghanistan to Western Europe. However, this is not yet the case, confirming that trafficking continues because of the availability of stocks.
The exact volume and location of most of the opium stocks is not known. I remind you that last year we provided to Member States information on stockpiles of some one hundred tons of opium, under control of criminal groups in forty locations along the northern border areas of Afghanistan. Although dangerous enough on its own, there is no reason to believe that this was the only stockpiling network. Medium to long term, the stockpiles will diminish, so we remain committed to the need for alternative development measures in growing areas to ensure that they are not replenished.
We are circulating an updated analysis of the current situation. We will continue to update the analysis regularly and share the findings with you.
Meanwhile, the stockpiled opium and the heroin derived from it remain a serious threat to the neighbouring countries. The highest heroin addiction rates in the world are in this region. Most of the heroin that reaches the CIS countries and Central and Western Europe originates in Afghanistan. During the past years, we intensified our work with the countries around Afghanistan, in an effort to create a barrier to Afghan opiates and to help these countries protect themselves from the effects of drug trafficking.
At the same time that we put pressure on the Taliban, we helped mobilize the neighbouring countries, whose action has been very helpful.
Although it may be premature, there is already talk about post-conflict Afghanistan. My only comment in this regard would be the need to ensure that any planning for the future include an insistence that large-scale opium poppy cultivation does not return and that the remaining cultivation is eliminated. Conditionality would seem in my view to be totally appropriate.
We have received some information about decisions by Afghan farmers to resume poppy cultivation. Poppy is a crop for times of uncertainty. We need to be ready to counter this, including measures to help farmers facing difficulties.
Turning to the issue of demand reduction, during the last session of the Commission, Member States instructed UNDCP to pursue a fully balanced approach in its programming. The implication was a need for greater attention to demand reduction.
This was fully supportive of the efforts over the past four years on our part to give demand reduction a more central place in the work of UNDCP. The need for greater attention to demand has become even more acute since the prospects have begun to increase for success in reducing supply. The overall world production of opium will be down sixty per cent this year. If demand does not decrease, then any success against illicit supply will not be sustainable.
We shared with you at your last meeting our activities in demand reduction. I am now pleased to report that in the proposed Programme Budget for the 2002/2003 biennium you will find an increase of five point three per cent in the funds devoted to demand reduction. This increase may appear to be small, but it should be seen in the light of the overall decrease of twelve point three per cent in the Programme Budget and some ten per cent in the total budget.
The enhanced attention to demand reduction is fully in line with the outcome of the Special Session. Today you will continue your discussions on demand reduction, looking at additional concrete ways to implement the Declaration on the guiding principles of demand reduction and the related Action Plan.
While this will of course involve measures to be taken by Member States themselves, it will also have implications for the work of UNDCP. We look forward to the additional guidance that will come from your debate.
Your agenda also takes up the governance of UNDCP. In the material attached to my letter of 13 September, we outlined the progress we have achieved so far in addressing the fourteen recommendations in the OIOS report on the management of ODCCP. We also included a description of steps taken regarding the thirty-seven recommendations of the OIOS triennial reviews and of the observations made by the Board of Auditors.
There is not much need to elaborate on that detailed presentation unless you have some specific questions. At the heart of the management reforms is an increased delegation of authority to managers, giving them the degree of decision-making authority needed to act on their own and take responsibility for their actions. This applies to both programme matters and to financial and budgetary matters.
It has been possible to move forward fairly quickly with regard to programme matters. The creation in March of a Programme and Project Committee was an important step on the programme side, supported by delegated authority to approve projects up to a certain budget level.
The delegation of responsibility for budget and financial matters is more complex. The OIOS called for both "strengthened financial oversight" and "reinforced delegation of financial authority." While these are not contradictory, we feel that we must proceed methodically and carefully. We have prepared a set of guidelines for such delegation of financial authority, which will be fully implemented by the end of the year.
All of these measures interact with other changes. For example, in the next biennium 2002-2003, we will be using results-based budgeting. This will facilitate delegation of authority and accountability, since targets and objectives are much clearer from the beginning.
Lastly, we are actively reinforcing the synergies between UNDCP and the Crime Centre. This is already well advanced in a number of areas.
As we have begun implementing the various managerial changes, we have been encouraged by the positive reaction of a number of Member States. I look forward to your comments today.
Thank you.